The Scientific Committee has handed the government this Tuesday evening the 7th report for the post-SARS-COV-2 coronavirus epidemic situation. In the 43-page report available online, the Scientific Committee draws up four possible epidemic steps and strategies to set up, based on data available on the ongoing epidemic, modeling, and indicators as of the information circuits.
For the 13 scientists who wrote this report, the different information systems of medical activity and tests follow-up – the Stop-Covid application being a pillar – will be decisive in the government’s capacity to react.
Here are the four scenarios of the Scientific Committee
SCENARIO 1: if the virus stays under control, with only a few “local and monitored” clusters, then French will have to keep barrier gestures for at least six months.
SCENARIO 2: if clusters are big and let fear of a propagation, the Scientific Committee recommends “reinforcing barrier gestures” and “a massive ‘testing-tracking-isolating’ strategy” thanks to the health brigades. For the scientists, “giving extra means, such as human, must fit the size of the population to get tested and tracked”.
SCENARIO 3: if the Regional Health Agencies (ARS) think the epidemic is gradually growing stronger and “quietly”, that “indicators are weakening without chains being identified nor controlled”, regional-based or even domestic-based measures must be made. In the text, the Scientific Committee says: “Applying measures must take into account the geographic conditions of the epidemic’s growth. If for instance, whole regions have an epidemic situation under control, excluding one region that is affected by a quiet resurgence, we should consider restricting the economical activity to guarantee a quick control of the cluster and avoid spreading across other regions. […] In scenario 3, thorough attention should be payed on the Ile-de-France region and the major precarity”.
SCENARIO 4: losing control over the epidemic spread. In that case, the Scientific Committee says the government will have to make “difficult decisions, leading to choosing between overall national lockdown, enabling to minimize direct mortality, and other collective, economical and social goals, accompanying major direct mortality”.
The Scientific Committee warns we can go to scenario 4 without stopping by phases 1, 2 and 3. According to them, “critical scenarios can happen right away” and they all call for a quick reaction activating pre-established measures.
To face the possible resurgence coronavirus as well as possible, scientists propose to elaborate “now with territorial players, a prevention and protection plan, the P2R-Covid, enabling to activate as quickly as possible appropriate measures”. This plan includes “7 protocols”, each devoted to reinforcing one specific element: barrier gestures and social distancing of the overall population – practicing the testing-isolating-tracking principle – confining people likely to develop severe forms – protecting nursing homes with a new strategy – particularly assisting “populations the most in need” – and last but not least, meeting big metropolises’ specific needs.
Important point in the report, the Scientific Committee excludes a new generalized lockdown. According to scientists, this option is “not desirable nor likely acceptable considering the health, social and economic stakes. It is then crucial to make everything to avoid such a situation of failure”.
By the way, the Scientific Committee regrets the government does not lean towards a bigger citizen implication in talks and decisions. For the 13 scientists, “scenarios must be subject to active communication to enlighten French on the future and collect their opinions”.
