After the passage of Storm Caetano, which dumped snow all over the Île-de-France region, exceptionally in November, we're wondering whether it might not return soon. Especially as temperatures are set to fall over the next few days, and snow is forecast for France, particularly in the plains.
As the cold air from the north intensifies from Saturday onwards, showers of melting snow or sleet are expected over much of the northern half of the country. But what about Paris and the surrounding area? Meteorologists remain cautious, estimating that the likelihood of snow in the Paris region remains uncertain, if not unlikely.
According to Guillaume Séchet, meteorologist and founder of Météo-Villes, the maritime polar air descending via the North Sea will bring unstable weather and precipitation. If snowflakes are confirmed in regions such as the Grand Est or the relief, the Île-de-France region could be marginally affected. Meteorological models, notably the Swiss model, point to the possibility of a few very localized flakes, without however guaranteeing a significant snow event.
Temperatures in the Ile-de-France region will fluctuate between 5 and 7 degrees Celsius, limiting the favorable conditions for any snow to stick to the ground. At this stage, the forecast does not rule out a few sprinkles in outlying areas, but no significant accumulation is envisaged. Should we expect a white coat? No confirmation yet.
The higher elevations, on the other hand, will benefit from a significant snowfall, just a few days before the ski resorts open. The Alps and the Pyrenees are expected to record significant snowfalls as early as Saturday.
Early next week, the forecast calls for a more marked cooling, with night-time temperatures below zero and daytime highs limited to 4 or 5 degrees. This colder weather will be accompanied by a return to more stable conditions, further reducing the chances of snowfall in the Île-de-France region.
So, while the idea of seeing Paris covered in snow this weekend may appeal to the imagination, it remains, for the time being, hypothetical. To find out, we'll have to keep a close eye on the evolution of weather models over the coming days.
