Coronavirus: new cases decreasing in France? Why the latest 2020 data are wrong

Published by Rizhlaine de Sortiraparis · Photos by My de Sortiraparis · Published on December 28, 2020 at 02:09 p.m.
Is the coronavirus epidemic in France more active than the latest data intend? Between the rise of covid tests prior to Christmas, public holidays and trips, here are factors making the end-of-year indicators wrong.

In France, is coronavirus spreading as much as prior to the Holidays? This December 26, 2020, the daily report on the health situation totaled 3,093 new Covid-19 cases in 24 hours. Two days earlier, it reported over 20,000 new cases. Yet, this Sunday December 27, 2020 Santé Publique France reported about 9,000 new coronavirus cases. But what do these incomprehensible change mean?

The end of 2020 sounds like a real challenge to report statistics. This explains why the evolution of the indicators over the past couple of days should be taken with a pinch of salt, and are not really showing the current situation of the epidemic in France. Several factors should be taken into account.

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Prior to Christmas, French massively headed to testing centers to make sure they were not carrying the virus before reuniting with their families. On December 22, a domestic record was broken, the number of tests made in one day: it exceeded half a million. The more the French are tested, the greater the case toll, explaining then data announced in the days prior to Christmas Eve. Therefore, there is a link between the number of tests and the evolution in cases.

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After Christmas comes weekends and public holidays: some laboratories were closed on the occasion and others worked but where short-staffed. Two elements delaying statistical reports. Data are then taken into account the days after and this delay leads to increasing daily tolls.

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One last factor should be noticed when following-up indicators: inter-regional trips. Amid the school holidays and family reunions, trips are more frequent and can make the surveillance of indicators per territories harder. Furthermore, when someone tests positive to coronavirus, the case is counted within the department and region of residence when they are known, and not depending on the area they have been tested in.

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