Is it going to snow in Paris and/or Île-de-France this Thursday? The coming week promises a radical change in weather conditions across France and in the Paris region. After a relatively calm period over the past few weeks, a cold front is moving into France. This front is driven by a conflict between a polar air mass and milder flows from the south. While gloom and precipitation are confirmed for the next few days, meteorologists remain cautious about the possibility of snow on the plains in the region.
From Monday onwards, grey, damp weather will dominate the Île-de-France region, with temperatures reaching 10°C. On Tuesday, the thermometer will dip to around 6°C, accompanied by intermittent rain and gusts reaching 75 km/h. A lull in the sunshine is expected on Wednesday, but temperatures will continue to fall, approaching 0°C. By Thursday, conditions could be ripe for flakes.
Experts agree on the widespread cooling of the air from Wednesday onwards, marked by a descent of polar air. However, there are a number of parameters that make this situation complex. For snow to fall and stay on the ground, it requires a precise alignment of factors: temperature, humidity and the trajectory of lows. Weather models, whether French (Arpège), American (GFS) or European (ECMWF), are still showing major discrepancies in the location and intensity of the snow episode.
According to current forecasts, snowflakes could appear in the areas of Rambouillet (Yvelines), Nangis (Seine-et-Marne) and Milly-la-Forêt (Essonne). For Paris itself, the probability remains low, as the city is slightly protected by its urban heat island effect. As the ground is still relatively mild, snow is unlikely to last long.
This uncertainty is due to the complexity of atmospheric interactions. The trajectory of lows and temperature variations, however slight, can radically alter forecasts. Guillaume Séchet, a well-known meteorologist, insists on the fluctuating nature of this situation. Daily model updates can refine these predictions, but we may have to wait a few hours before the arrival of precipitation to confirm the presence of snow.
Thursday November 21 looks like being the best day for possible snowfall on the plains, although the forecasts do not yet guarantee any marked phenomena in the Paris region. We advise you to keep an eye on the weather forecasts from Météo-France, and prepare yourself for a week of grey, windy and rainy weather, with perhaps a few wintry surprises thrown in for good measure.
