In 2022, the first heat wave of the year occurred in May, followed by many other episodes, which broke records of heat in the country. This year, the climate is cooler, with decreasing temperatures, but this is not expected to last long, due to the return of the El Niño phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years. In recent years, we have benefited from La Niña, its opposite, which cooled the surface waters and therefore allowed for lower temperatures on land. We can hardly imagine the heat waves of last year without the help of this phenomenon...
Meteorologists fear new heat records, like in 2016, the hottest year ever recorded on Earth to date. And it is the entire global climate that should be impacted, without sparing France and all of Europe. In addition to intensified heat waves, the risk of mega fires is also increased, with the accentuation of the phenomenon of global warming. Especially since the drought was already critical in the region from the beginning of the year, because of a lack of rainfall.
If the French overseas departments and territories and particularly French Polynesia could be affected by more extreme hurricanes and cyclones, Western Europe should experience temperatures still higher than normal. According to theWorld Meteorological Organization's forecasts, there is a 60% probability that El Niño will return between May and July, 70% between June and August and 80% between July and September. It seems therefore difficult to escape this year, for a 2023-2024 season that looks like being hot, the phenomenon usually lasts from 9 to 12 months.
