Phew, no new nationwide lockdown in France. But many doubts are still on. Faced with the resurgence of the Covid-19 epidemic and its new variants observed over the past days in France, on Thursday March 4 evening, Prime Minister Jean Castex confirmed the government’s will not to put the French back into nationwide lockdown. In the 23 departments placed under “strengthened surveillance”, including the entire Île-de-France area, sole Pas-de-Calais has been placed into local lockdown. Is this strategy durable in the long run? Or is it a risky health bet in the short run?
Nationwide, nothing changes: curfew starting at 6 p.m. remains standard anywhere in France. Yet, given data reported by Santé Publique France, the epidemic indicators are deep in red, especially in terms of incidence rate (220.4 nationwide average as of March 4), and hospital occupancy (71.8% of ICU beds taken). Especially when we remember the governmental recommendations given during this past lockdown, in the Fall, one notices the executive has shifted gears in terms of health policy.
“No exponential growth”, but worrying data
If data released in February-March are still far from the standards noticed during the surge in early November in France (52,518 daily cases as of November 2, 2020), and the head of government repeats there is “no exponential growth” in Covid-19 in France, the spectacular increase in the incidence race in some departments – specifically in Île-de-France including Seine-Saint-Denis above 400 – lets us think about a likely surge of the pandemic, at least locally.
To fight against the epidemic, the government intends to trust the French while speeding the vaccination up, ultimate solution given by Castex and Olivier Véran to meet “normal life” again by mid-April, prognoses say. But this solution takes time… Furthermore, excluding curfew, there is no obligation: recommendations only. The last time the government gave recommendations faced with a new surge of Covid-19? Right before Fall, towards late September. Including consequences that led afterwards.
A rather risky health bet that might be highly dangerous for the executive in the event of a new surge of the epidemic. The governmental strategy could be condemned, jeopardizing Macronia’s health card castle. Beware overconfidence: when it comes to health issues, the crystal ball shall remain in the closet. Time has come for prudence.
